ABSTRACT: The subject of this paper is an interdisciplinary attempt to construct a scientific mathematical model capable of tracking population dynamics between two population censuses. The development of this model emerged from an aspiration to optimize historiographical methodology and to examine the applicability of mathematical modelling within the social sciences. The mathematical model enabling the monitoring of population change between two censuses was developed on the basis of data drawn from the Statistical Yearbook of the Federal Statistical Office during the Cold War period, using the example of the Yugoslav population. The first part of the paper provides the rationale for the construction of such a scientific model, while the second part presents the process of its formulation and the results obtained. The resulting model potentially enables historiography to produce population projections for periods and regions for which statistical data are unavailable. At the same time, it offers mathematics and physics the opportunity to develop models based on data sets that these disciplines have not previously used for modelling purposes, nor applied in this manner.

KEYWORDS: methodology, model, historiography, Belgrade morphological school, demographic scars

SUMMARY: The topic of this paper is an interdisciplinary attempt to build a scientific, mathematical model that can track population dynamics between two censuses. The formation of this model arose from the desire to optimize historiographic methodology and examine the possibilities of applying mathematical models in the social sciences. The mathematical model that allows monitoring the change in population between two censuses was built on data from the Statistical Yearbook of the Statistical Office during the Cold War period, using the example of the Yugoslav population. The first part of the paper explains the reasons for building such a scientific model, while the second part of the paper traces the process of its formation and the results obtained. The resulting model potentially enables historiography to project population numbers for periods and areas for which statistical data do not exist, while, on the other hand, it brings to mathematics and physics the possibility of developing models based on data that these sciences have not previously built or applied.