Mile BJELAJAC
Institut za noviju istoriju Srbije, Beograd
Serbia’s World War I Casualties – Numerical Controversies
Abstract: The author highlights various discrepancies in literature concerning numerical data from the recent past. There are a number of examples which demonstrate their long-lasting and complex character. This complexity often stems from an emotional connection with previous interpretations, as in the case of the number of Serbian casualties in World War I. A thorough analysis of previous interpretations reveals significant differences and discrepancies. This paper discusses the diverging interpretations, as well as certain newly discovered sources, indicating that the total number of Serbian casualties in World War I needs to be reconsidered.
Key words: War Losses, POW, POW Camps, World War I, Serbia, Corfu, Kingdom of SCS, Historical Controversies, Quantitative Data in Historiography
Summary
Over a hundred years after the end of World War I, a consensus has not been reached about the exact number of casualties, neither in Serbian nor in European historiographies. Attempts based on newly discovered sources to revise previously determined numerical data incite various reactions both in academia and in wider public. A thorough reexamination of French and German casualties during the Battle of Verdun has disproven the often cited claims that 350.000 soldiers had fallen on each side. Researchers have demonstrated the stereotypical and symbolical character of the existing numerical data and shown that the real number of casualties was far lower, namely, 162.440 on the French and 81.668 on the German side. Varying numbers of victims killed in Kragujevac and Kraljevo during 1941 is another example of numerical data fluctuation regarding war losses. Although the approximate number of casualties of the Kraljevo and Kragujevac massacres has been exposed by historians, eighty years later the old stereotypes still persist, even in some history textbooks. These two examples point towards a much wider problem historians are facing when dealing with quantifications. They also serve as reminders that different non-academic motives are usually behind seemingly legitimate figures.
This paper presents the majority of data regarding Serbian military casualties of WWI found in Serbian and other historiographies. An attempt has been made to uncover how certain figures were initially reached and how they became widely accepted. Furthermore, the accuracy of the previously accepted numerical data has been fact-checked, i.e., verified or corrected, by shedding light on newly discovered primary sources.
High numbers of Serbian casualties claimed in the Memoirs sub- mitted by the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes Government to the Paris Peace Conference commission for war losses cannot be corroborated neither by the documents of the Serbian Army’s High Command itself, other Serbian military sources, other countries’ published documents (especially regarding the casualties in POW camps), Allied military sources, nor the results reached in modern Serbian historiography (on prisoners of war, disabled veterans, war losses, fallen orthodox priests, reprisals in certain regions). Nevertheless, they are persistent even in modern historical studies.
There is a significant discrepancy between the numerical data about the war losses presented in the Serbian Army’s High Command’s documents from 1914–1918 and those collected by the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes Government on one side, and numbers submitted to the Paris Peace Conference in February 1919 on the other. The latter served as a basis for determining the war damage and reparations the vanquished were to pay to the war victors. The discrepancy is remarkable, especially with regard to the numbers of disabled veterans (114.000), prisoners of war who died or were disabled in the POW camps, widows (258.000), civilian victims of typhus (360.000), civilian casualties during the withdrawal through Albania (140.000), and military casualties (77.278), as these figures surpass the difference between the number of those who were saved (146.000), imprisoned (174.000), who died in battles, who were wounded or went missing, on one hand, and the total number of military service members on October 1 1915 (420.000), on the other.
According to later verified government data, the number of veterans disabled in WWI amounted to 29.522, and in the Balkan wars 4.315. A total of 76.886 disabled veterans were registered in the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes. More precise figures of civilian victims of typhus in Serbia amount to 120.000 (W. Hunter). There are far fewer military victims of typhus as the numbers do not exceed 30–35.000 soldiers. Newly discovered sources demonstrate that a total of 16.475 persons died of typhus between August 1914 and August 1915. During the epidemic (January–May 1915), the typhus victims made one third or one half of the total number of deaths. Evidence from primary sources demonstrate that during 1914 22.752 soldiers died in battle and 2.572 died as a result of injury or disease, in contrast to data presented in the Government Memoirs of 1919 which quote 69.022 war casualties. The latter served as a basis for determining the war damage and reparations the vanquished were to pay to the war victors. According to data collected by the Kingdom of SCS Government, POW losses amounted to 62.873, whereas the Memoirs claims 81.214, a number which is more adequate for the total number of deceased civilians and soldiers during captivity.
An attempt to determine the exact number of fallen soldiers in WWI undertaken during the interwar period was not completed. Neither were the more modern projects aimed at determining not only Serbian civilian and military casualties of WWI, but also the war losses of Serbian and Montenegrin armies during the Balkan wars, number of fallen volunteers, other armies’ casualties, as well as losses of the unified army of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes during 1919–1920.
Based on the years-long experience in researching the issue of Serbian WWI casualties, this paper shows that the main obstacle and challenge is to determine the number of military casualties from the period between October 1915 and the arrival to Corfu. Out of approximately
100.000 possible military casualties, only 8.000 can be listed as certain. The fates of the remaining 92.000 are still unknown. Many of them died either in battle or from injuries or disease, some may have been imprisoned, and some could have had deserted in November 1915 and returned home safely. Some of them rejoined the army in 1918, whereas some took part in the Toplica Uprising in 1917. Determining the exact number of civilian casualties is even more difficult, given the hard living conditions during the war and occupation. Demographic data suggests that the population of Serbia decreased by 525.158 citizens between the two censuses in 1911 and 1921. However, the number of civilians killed during WWI is difficult to tell due to a generally lower birth rate during the war and occupation, hard living conditions, and the Spanish flu epidemic in 1919.
Despite relevant and reliable figures about military losses which were brought to light by the discovery of new primary sources, exaggerated numbers from the Memoirs (369.111 in the version in Serbian, and 402.435 in the version in French) are still very much present in Serbian and foreign historiographies, as is an unfounded estimate that over a million (or 1.274.000 in the French version), or 30%, of men died during the war. It is hard to tell when these figures will be replaced with historically accurate data.